Product

Currencies. Equities. Commodities. Crypto.
Visual Multi-asset Macro Analysis Tools from Kairos Economics.

Fundamentals

Take back your time and let the Kairos Macro App scour the web and aggregate key economic data points for you so you can focus on execution. Kairos collects, standardizes, and scores economic data from across the web for 17 countries globally and then builds out a Macro View that combines country specific data into Zones, then tracks the economic momentum of those Zones to show you exactly what Environment we are currently in at any given time. Kairos provides you a systematic, automated macro process so you will never be confused about why markets are moving.

Aggregate, standardize, score, and visualize the fundamentals with Kairos Macro.

Technicals

Sometimes the best approach to technical analysis is the simplest: where is the momentum? Kairos tracks and alerts you to overall momentum across the currency, equity index, and commodities complex to make sure you aren’t missing the best opportunities in the markets. In a globalized economy with seemingly limitless numbers of assets to invest in, be sure you are only giving your attention to the ideas that combine a fundamental and a technical edge and are moving -- these are the most powerful and profitable trends to be seeking.

Fundamentals plus price momentum equals edge with Kairos Technicals.

Sentiment

There are many ways to gauge sentiment across markets, but there are none more telling than actual positioning data. Kairos Sentiment tracks and visualizes positioning data across both retail trader participants and the much larger institutional participants (including cross pairs) to see where most traders think markets will go. With Kairos Macro and Kairos Sentiment at your disposal, you will learn when it’s best to follow the Goliaths, and more importantly, when it’s time to play David.

David and Goliath: track positioning between the smallest traders and the largest with Kairos Sentiment.

Equities

How can you know when it’s better to be long or short US equities? Take the other side of the losing trade. Kairos Equities tracks daily changes in retail positioning in the S&P 500 and combines it with weekly price momentum to be sure that you are on board the path of least resistance in the S&P 500 index. From here, use fundamental data to determine if the edge is in Cyclical or Defensive names, and then browse a database of over 2000 individual stocks to find your target with strong earnings and momentum compared to the overall market and for the stock in particular.

The bellwether of them all, conquered with Kairos Equities.


Kairos Macro

The Edge begins here

The Kairos Macro algorithm aggregates and scores over 230 individual data points for over 15 of the most important economies globally and pulls them into our database in order to keep you ahead of the fundamental curve and on top of any changes in the economic landscape across the world. The econometric models were built to focus on foundational aspects of macroeconomics while keeping in mind the nuances of each country’s important fundamental drivers. Each model was built lean in an effort to cancel out the noise.

The system pulls these data points for each country automatically for you, standardizes them, and then scores them in reference to their own historical distributions. Most models stop here. Kairos doesn’t. From each country’s economic score the system builds on itself to create economic Zones which help paint the picture of the global macro landscape as a whole and provide insight into which Environment we are currently in. Knowing which countries are performing well and which are not is important in any macro analysis, but matching those rankings with the appropriate macro environment is what turns good ideas into great ones. It’s not just important to know which assets to focus on; it’s equally important to know when it matters most. Key shifts in the fundamentals are solidly at the core of the best opportunities year in and year out in the financial markets. Let Kairos Macro handle this heavy analysis for you so that you don’t miss the next one.




Kairos Technicals

There is a classic saying in the financial markets from British Economist John Maynard Keynes, who said: “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” The last thing you want as a trader is to put on risk only to have the position move against you, take you out, and then move the other way in the direction you anticipated. Enter Kairos Technicals. Kairos Technicals tracks pure price momentum and correlations across the FX, Equity Index, and Commodity markets so that you aren’t wasting any of your capital on trades that don’t move, or that are moving against the current fundamental biases.

In order to do this, the system does not simply track increases in volatility across single assets and plot them. Nor does it utilize traditionally lagging indicators found in all out-of-the-box brokerage platforms. Alternatively, the Kairos Technicals algorithm aggregates the price movement of each asset we track against a basket of its peers in order to truly quantify and normalize absolute price strength and weakness.

As prices move week in and week out across the financial markets, Kairos Technicals is tracking the strong and weak changes in momentum and queuing you on significant price events including momentum crosses in FX, quarterly average momentum shifts in Equity Indexes and Commodities, and long and short exhaustion patterns meant to alert you to topping and bottoming patterns. In addition to price momentum, it is important to consider that global markets do not move in a vacuum. Because this is true, it is of equal importance to track dynamic correlation relationships between the markets you trade in order to take advantage of leading and lagging moves in price. Kairos Technicals handles this for you by graphically tracking correlations over time in a systematic way. If a new correlation presents itself in the markets, you will know about it and be able to take advantage.

The ultimate goal of Kairos Technicals is to keep you in check when it comes to the trading ideas you intend to put on so that if the market is moving irrationally, you have the best chance to stay solvent until it’s time to strike.





Kairos Sentiment

What is more important: An Opinion or an Action? When it comes to sentiment analysis, the latter beats the former an overwhelming majority of the time. Kairos Sentiment visualizes positioning for you from the smallest traders to the largest so that you are never unaware of where you stand among the crowd. There are two parts to Kairos Sentiment: Retail Analysis and CoT Analysis. Let’s start with Retail: it is a known truism that 90% of retail investors lose their account balance 90% of the time within 90 days of opening an account. The statistics PhDs may argue about the details, but the cliche is true: the losers in the financial markets are, to an overwhelming degree, the smaller investors who tend to make decisions with a short-term, herd mentality. If you take a look at a price chart of any asset class and find the largest, cleanest trends, you can bet a crowd of retail investors were piling in on the other side of that trade the entire way up or down. Kairos Sentiment retail analysis provides daily positioning data for over 35 currency pairs, graphically representing the NET positioning of the smallest traders in the market. Here is the bottom line: if you are in a position, or are looking to put on a position, you need to be aware of how retail is deciding on the current and future direction of that currency pair -- and you do not want to be on their side.

On the opposite end of the spectrum are the largest participants in the markets. In order to provide the market some level of transparency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission collects updated positioning data from these large market participants on a weekly basis and presents them to the public each Friday afternoon. Kairos Sentiment CoT Analysis takes data from the CFTC commitments of traders reports, which compiles weekly positioning data of the largest speculators in the market -- the money managers and hedge funds moving billions in assets under management -- and delivers it to you in an extremely easy to view graph along with some key metrics in order to understand the context. In addition, Kairos Sentiment normalizes the positioning data on a chart against the price action of the underlying asset and graphs the current correlation between the data and price. What further separates Kairos CoT Analysis from many others is that we are also presenting you with the commitments of traders for select cross-currency pairs. Armed with a knowledge of where large speculative money is, has been, and is flowing, you will always know the state of the play in markets. Sentiment is a largely misunderstood and misappropriated part of an overall trading process. It should be used not to generate ideas outright on an absolute basis (yes, it is true that sometimes retail is correct). Positioning data becomes powerful in the context of a fully-developed trade idea generated out of an understanding of the underlying assets and the overall macro environment.







Kairos Equities

When it comes to financial markets, it’s difficult to consider another market more important to global sentiment than the US Stock Market, with the S&P 500 as the benchmark of US Equity performance. In order to come up with an overall directional bias on the index, Kairos equities combines daily retail positioning data with weekly price momentum. The simplicity is key: if the majority of Main Street participants believe the market will go up, it is likely to go down; if they believe it is likely to go down, we will rally heavily. However, we do not simply rely on positioning data to tell us whether we should be bullish or bearish; we also lean on our price momentum gauges from Kairos Technicals to confirm that retail is on the wrong side of the larger trend. Simply put: if retail is long and price momentum is down, we are bearish the S&P 500 and vice versa. This is tool one in the powerful Kairos Equities kit. In addition to helping you keep track of the overall trend in the bellwether index, Kairos Equities also presents supplemental data on its main overlay to help contextualize what type of bull or bear market we are in, including a key measurement of the VIX, a visual of NET options buying activity, and a visual of the Institute of Supply Chain Management’s PMI data, long considered a leading indicator of the overall business and profits cycle. With direction and context at your fingertips, you will never be at a loss for how the S&P 500 is trading on a weekly and monthly time frame.

In addition to understanding direction and context of the overall market index, Kairos Equities also tracks the price momentum of stocks that make up 11 major SPDR Sector ETFs. With this data you will uncover further context into what’s really happening in the US Stock Market. Knowing if participants are selling defensive stocks in the Utilities, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples sectors while buying stocks in the Technology, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors provides a heavy guage of the health of the overall market. Constantly keeping aware of which sectors are moving higher and lower will also help you pinpoint which single stocks you may want to allocate capital toward, long or short. Kairos Equities has you covered here as well. With one click you are able to browse a 2000+ stock database of earnings growth metrics, relative strength metrics, historical distribution scores for both combined, industry tags and more. As an investor seeking to put capital to work in the US stock market, Kairos Equities helps you build out fully developed trade ideas beginning with taking a view on the Index as a whole, filtering down through the strongest and weakest sectors by Price Momentum, and finally to pinpointing an individual stock that meets your earnings, price action, and sector style criteria.



Our pricing

Choose your favorite plan

Basic Monthly

Flexible

$99

  • Kairos Macro
  • Kairos Technicals
  • Kairos Sentiment
  • Kairos Equities
  • Real time alerts
  • Receive Insights

Advanced Monthly

Flexible

$149

  • Kairos Macro
  • Kairos Technicals
  • Kairos Sentiment
  • Kairos Equities
  • Real time alerts
  • Receive Insights


Case Study
EURUSD Long, April 2017


Here is a price chart of EURUSD coming into 2017:


The pair had been trading in a wide range between 1.50 and its Global Financial Crisis lows before selling off a massive 25% beginning in the Summer of 2014. This selloff took the pair solidly beneath the 1.24 level. From there the pair put in a small rally in 2015 off the back of US cyclical weakness before settling into another range between 1.19 and 1.04 heading into Q1 2017.

Here is what Kairos Macro is showing during the time period leading up to Q1 2017:

Using the Kairos Macro environments graph, it's clear that we're sitting cleanly in a several month’s long trend of synchronized global growth that began near the end of 2016. This is represented by the +2 Environment above.

In this particular environment we have a slightly bearish bias toward the US Dollar as a risk asset because it tends to fade in periods of global growth; at the same time we have a balanced view of the overall global economy and risk assets generally. In essence, this is an extremely good time to be buying risk globally. We tend to see appreciation in strong EM currencies during these periods as well as strength out of commodity currencies as business and consumer demand buoys export demand, Central Banks lean toward a hold or hawkish bias, and economic data trends see measured, upward movement across the board. What we want to be doing during this time frame is simply buying strong economies against the laggards while taking more opportunities in cyclical risk markets like commodities and individual stocks with high growth potential. The opportunities are plentiful in this major environment.

For perspective, here is how the USD is trading during this time frame from an absolute momentum basis, courtesy of Kairos Technicals:


Clearly the US Dollar is being sold to purchase some of its peer currencies at a pace beneath its quarterly average, beginning in January 2017.

From a Price Action perspective, here is the price chart from this time frame, with a red arrow noting the start of January, 2017.
Given the context, our initial bias towards the EURUSD is balanced: we would gladly look for opportunities to purchase euros and sell dollars, and we would gladly buy dollars and sell euros if the relative economics made sense.

Here is what the European Union Macro Index looks like heading into Q1 and Q2 2017:

As you can see, the cursor is hovering over April 2017 and it is quite clear that not only is the absolute measure positive but the economic momentum is tracking upward and above the underlying trend. For further context, the European Union is attempting to come out of a range bound bottom economically, which fits nicely with what we see on the price chart above.

From this data, the bias for the Euro from a data perspective would be unequivocally bullish.

Here is what we see from the Macro Index in the United States during the same period:

Similar to the European Union, the United States’ Macro Index is coming off a strong bottom during the same timeframe and is ripping through into positive territory by April 2017. The momentum measure is clearly above the underlying trend.

Given the reading here, would have been unequivocally bullish the US Dollar.

While a bullish bias is present in both economies, there is one clear distinction between the two: the European Union is clearly outpacing the United States on a relative economic scale; the EU is registering a score of 7.60 while the US is registering a milder 2.78.

At this point in the idea generation process, Kairos is going to be providing a Long EURUSD bias based on the current global environment of synchronized growth and based also on the relative economics of the two countries. Simply put, in a world where everyone is seemingly doing well, the EU is outpacing the US by more than double in our metrics.

The verdict: Seek Long opportunities in the EURUSD currency pair if and when the Technicals suggest momentum is moving into the pair.

Once we have a bias one way or another on an asset, it is important to understand where market participants are positioned. This will help let us know if we are late to the idea, ahead of it, or right on time.

Let’s take a look at the Commitment of Traders data for EURUSD during this period:

It is clear from Kairos Sentiment CoT Analysis that leading into this time period large speculators are NET short EURUSD from a historical perspective. What this tells us is that we are ahead of this trade and may need to be patient and wait for positioning and price action to let us know it's time for the unwind of shorts to begin. We know from history that these are the best trade setups. When we have a fundamental bias, an environmental view that aligns with that bias, and a situation where large market participants have been situated the oppositely, we know that they will eventually wake up to the shift in fundamentals and begin to position the other way. This type of positioning unwind provides the gas for long, clean trends in price and this is what we hope to find as traders.

What’s more, take a look at the correlation measure. What this is doing is measuring the correlation level between price and the positioning data. It is not an exact science, but it is a clear pattern that the correlation dips just before it begins to realign. Here it is clearly coming down and by April it actually goes negative. You can also see that this is rare. A rare occurrence like this only adds to our conviction level that large speculators are on the wrong side of this trade and will soon realize they need to get out.

Now we have a fundamental bias, and we know we are ahead of a trade where large speculations are NET the other direction.

So, where are we from a technical perspective, and when can we know it is time to enter our position?

What you see above is taken from the Kairos Technicals page, inside the EURUSD symbol lookup. The EUR is represented by the light blue line, and the USD is represented by the green line. Clearly the USD is beginning to underperform its peers beginning in early 2017, and the EUR is balanced and starting to get bullish through the same period.

A key here is to consider that we have a fundamental bias to be long EURUSD several months prior to where the cursor is hovering, but we are not be looking to take a position until we have a clear signal from the market that polarized price momentum is coming into EURUSD. If we go in early we risk capital that could be put to better use in other trades. Best practice is to wait patiently. The fundamentals have provided an idea, but a trade can be executed if and only if the market begins to agree with our bias.

Clearly, on the week beginning April 02, 2017, the market begins to agree that getting long EURUSD is a good idea. For us, this becomes a great idea -- the fundamental winds are at our backs, and the technicals are showing us it’s time to move. We can look to execute our position long.

So, some accounting:

1. Nearing the end of 2016 and into 2017 the global environment is clearly one of synchronized global growth, telling us that we need to be seeking relative economic strength opportunities and have a slightly bearish bias toward the US Dollar.

2. From a fundamental perspective, both the EU and the United States are performing at above trend growth, and both are sitting in positive absolute territory.

3. The EU, however, is outpacing the US in economic score by over a 2 multiple. Given the environment, Kairos signals a long EURUSD fundamental bias.

4. From a positioning perspective, large speculators are NET short EURUSD and have been for a little while before this. Moreover, there is a clear disconnect between the positioning and the price action: the positioning is getting shorter while the price is holding firm. We know we are early to the trade, but we are convinced that if nothing material changes fundamentally we will have an opportunity to put on risk soon enough.

5. From a technical perspective, the USD is clearly depreciating versus a basket of other currencies through Q1 2017, and we see a shift to long EURUSD from a momentum perspective on the week beginning April 2, 2017.

What happened next?

Here is the price chart of EURUSD following the analysis above. From the opening print on the week starting Sunday April 2, 2017 (April 3 on TradingView) the Euro rallied against the Us Dollar by ~13.5% over the course of the next 5 months in a clean, measured, upward trend. The entry offered little drawdown and plenty of possibilities to add or trade around your core long position.

A move of over 10% in a currency pair is quite rare in today’s markets, and can only happen when big fundamental inflections are taking place that have implications into the future, driving market participants to move money into and out of the market at a rapid pace.

This is the type of volatility and trend that Kairos was built to help you find.

You cannot afford to miss the next one.

frequently asked questions

About Kairos Economics

In short, what is the purpose of Kairos Economics?
Kairos Economics is a company built by traders for traders with a focus on applied macroeconomics in an effort to help bridge the performance gap between retail traders and their larger counterparts. The Kairos Economics suite of tools automates the heavy lifting from a macro perspective in terms of aggregation, scoring, and tracking macro fundamentals and higher timeframe price movement which allows private investors the ability to focus on the execution of their own strategies with the knowledge that the big picture is behind their trades.

What is the main target group of Kairos Economics?
The Kairos App was created by traders, for traders. It’s as simple as that. If you are someone who is active or is looking to be active in the markets on a large or small scale, the Kairos suite of tools can be an invaluable asset to your trading toolbox and give you the peace of mind in knowing the economic environment is on your side.

What is it about the Kairos Economics App that makes it a useful investment for subscribers?
One of the biggest issues individual investors face is the overwhelming task of tracking the larger macro picture to the point that most decide against it completely and opt for a totally technical approach to the markets, often leading to a high probability of failure.

Kairos solves this issue by automating the process and acting as a launching point for traders to execute strategies with the full knowledge that the fundamentals are on their side. The Kairos suite of tools allows traders to take back their time, focus on the opportunities where the biggest edge is currently present in the market, and stop wasting their time watching every market available to them only to miss the biggest opportunities of each cycle.

About Subscriptions

How do I become a subscriber?
Become a subscriber by clicking “Sign Up” on any of the pages on our website.
Or simply go to the Pricing page and click Get Started.

Do you offer a free trial?
We do not offer a free trial.

Are there different types of subscription plans available?
Yes. Currently we have two kinds of subscriptions: Basic and Advanced. At the Basic Monthly level you will have full access to the Kairos User Interface and all of the tools any time that you want. At the Advanced Monthly level, you will have access to everything in the Basic subscription plus access to real time alerts to changes in the UI including any technical or sentiment based updates daily and weekly. In addition, you will be put on the mailing list for Kairos Insights, our monthly newsletter that delivers to you our personal opinions on the markets via the Kairos suite of tools, including a look into how our portfolios are performing and what we are looking to do next. Don’t forget, we are traders too. The Basic Monthly option is priced at $99 a month (USD), and the Advanced Monthly option is priced at $149 a month (USD).

Will my subscription renew automatically or do I have to do it manually?
Your subscription will renew automatically on the anniversary of your subscription either monthly or yearly depending on which subscription you’ve chosen.

The payment details I used to when I first subscribed have changed -- can I update them?
If you need to change the payment details on your account please contact us at mail@kairoseconomics.com

I’d like to change my subscription email/password associated -- how do I do this?
You can change the email/password associated with your subscription at any time by emailing your request to mail@kairoseconomics.com

Can I cancel my subscription at any time?
Yes, you can cancel your subscription at any time. If you have a monthly plan, your access to the UI will cease at the end of the month that you’ve paid through on the anniversary of your subscription and will not auto-renew. If you have a yearly plan, your access to the UI will cease on the anniversary of your subscription when you paid for the year and will not auto-renew.

Is there a way to change my monthly plan to a yearly plan?
If you would like to shift from a monthly plan to a yearly plan, you may cancel your monthly subscription and then subscribe again on a yearly plan whenever you’d like, but it is best to do so on the day your monthly subscription access ends so that you don’t double pay for time.

Do you offer refunds?
We do not offer refunds on either subscription plan as you may cancel at any time. If you would like to cancel the yearly subscription within 14 days from subscription date, we will take a $500 administrative fee and refund the remainder of your initial payment. After 14 days, you will not receive any refund on the yearly subscription as per the terms of service at the time of subscribing.

contact